Post by pdlglm on Nov 20, 2024 23:04:25 GMT -5
Virginia 3-0 KP # 77
The vols travel to the Bahamas on Thursday at 8:30PM CST for one of those ‘basketball in a conference room’ things they do around Thanksgiving. This one isn’t at Atlantis but something called Baha Mar or some such. Still, not a basketball arena.
The opponent for the first round of this four team tourney (Baylor/St. Johns have the opener) is the Cavaliers from the University of Virginia. You may recall that their long-time coach, Tony Bennett, had enough of the NIL/transfer portal/rent a team era and flaked out on his team a couple weeks ago. More and more I am finding myself agreeing with guys like Bennett and while I am supposed to say something now like ‘though I am glad that the players are finally getting paid’, I don’t know. I think the net result of the NIL era is going to be less athletic scholarship opportunities for all student athletes. So, while I can certainly understand his frustration with unlimited and unregulated free agency there was, in my opinion, some legitimate concerns with when Bennett decided to resign. It also may be worth noting that UVA hasn’t won a tourney game since they won it all back in 2019.
The new coach is Ron Sanchez, 9 years an assistant under Bennett and head coach for 5 years at Charlotte. During that time Sanchez had zero NCAAT appearances. He resigned the job at the end of year five and was immediately hired as associate HC at UVA.
Sanchez, being a Bennett disciple, plays really, really slow, very little offensive rebounding, very good on the defensive glass, his teams don’t foul. . Started the season with a lackluster win against Campbell at home which dropped them 8 spots in the KP and followed that up with another performance that underwhelmed the computer against Coppin State before the big Nova win bounced them back to #76.
Sanchez is taking their old base offense and adding some new wrinkles, putting more shooters on the floor, taking more threes than they have since 2021 and the result has been the Cavaliers opening on a heater (9th in the nation in 3pt%). They are going to run a bunch of ball screens and dribble hand offs from bigs out front. Okpara especially is going to have to do a good job on the roll off of those handoffs, and our switches are going to have to be clean. They have a very high assist percentage and don’t look to have a bunch of guys who can generate there own shot. Here is a really good look at their new offense.
Besides the additional three point shooting the Cavs have posted the 7th in 2pt% defense. Here are their four factors:
Bennett leaving when he did actually may have worked to leave the cupboard full, or almost full, anyway. FSU transfer Jalen Warley bolted and still hasn’t found a landing spot, but there wasn’t a ton of defections.
The early scoring leader is Isaac McKneely (6-4, 195lb Jr) who has spent all 3 yrs at UVA – he is putting up 16pts and 3 boards. Career 43% 3pt shooter who is 11-17 out of the gate this year. Doesn’t turn it over or foul and doesn’t get to the line. Not much of a threat to get to the rim (8% of his attempts last season). Not ‘just a shooter’ but pretty close, gets over half his shots from three. They are working on him being more than just a spot up guy this season, taking jumpers off the dribble and coming of screens.
An early season surprise has been freshman Jacob Cofie (6-10, 230lb Fr) who is averaging 13pts (on 7.7 shots) top go along with 7.7 boards. Cofie is 5-11 from three, 9-12 inside the arc and has yet to miss from the line. He is 7-7 at the rim and has only taken 2 mid range shots. He recorded a double double in his 2nd career game against an underwhelming Coppin State squad.
Rounding out the double digits scorers in the early going is San Diego State transfer Elijah Saunders (6-8, 240lb Jr) with 10.3 pts and 5.3 boards a contest. Saunders is a stretch four who last year took more threes than twos though he only shot 33.1% from deep. Good if not great rebounding numbers, very efficient when he did venture inside (57% 2pt% and 66% at the rim). From the looks of these highlights at least a few of his made threes were wide stinking open (I would tell you with more certainty the % of his C&S threes that were unguarded but Synergy changed how they do their subscriptions and they wanted $3,000 a month for a script this yr – just a little outside the Hoopsville opponent research budget).
The point guard is Kansas State transfer Dai Dai Ames (6-1, 190lb Soph) who wasn’t much of a shooter last season in Manhattan (42.8% eFG%) and didn’t have big assist numbers (2 a game), so I would say the jury is still out on whether he is going be to a productive player. He did manage to get ejected in multiple games as a freshman, once for a really dirty foul against Texas and in last years Baha Mar tourney against Providence for a quick little punch.
Andrew Rohde (6-6, 180lb jr) is averaging 30 minutes a contest, though he did miss the Coppin State game entirely. He couldn’t shoot the ball from anywhere last season (37.0% eFG%).
Blake Buchanan (6-11, 215lb Soph) gives the Cavs another big who is a non shooter but good on the glass at both ends.
This team was picked 6th in the new 18 team ACC by Blue Ribbon and 5th by ACC media, they don’t have anybody on the preseason All ACC teams. Nice little neutral court win over Villanova early, though, Nova was picked 7th in the Big East. Not particularly athletic, not great at the point guard position – unless you consider McNeely as a ball handler. But they have a couple shooters, or so it seems, and they are gonna slow it down and reduce possessions which could frustrate the Vols, especially if the sight lines are tough in the conference room. They have turned it over a little early on and Ames wasn’t the best at ball security last season at K State – which could be an issue against the Vols defense. But all in all, Tennessee clearly has the better roster.
KP says this is a 10pt game, Torvik rates it a little closer at 8pts. Vols opened as 12pt favorites in Vegas and you can get Vols -12.5 or even -13 now. I think Vegas is probably right, I mean, the Vols could be off – three point variance and all and the Cavs have shot it very, very well early this season – but the defenses they have played rate out at the #299th best defensive schedule so far – not necessarily a gauntlet they have faced. Neither team plays fast, though the Vols offense has been considerably quicker than Virginia’s plodding bunch so we should be in for a low possession game where the Vols cause long possessions on the defensive end. I think UVA is gonna have trouble getting the ball into the lane and getting the Vols to chase. If TN can be disciplined with the ball screens, hand offs and rolls they should be able to force Virginia to operate their offense further away from the basket than they would like. UVA could shoot their way into the game or even into a win if the low possession variance plays in their favor – but I expect Tennessee’s defense to be a little too physical for a team working in new offensive wrinkles and breaking in a couple new faces and a big freshman.
I think Dubar logs some minutes in the one and the Vols get to play the winner of ST. Johns/Baylor.
GBO
The vols travel to the Bahamas on Thursday at 8:30PM CST for one of those ‘basketball in a conference room’ things they do around Thanksgiving. This one isn’t at Atlantis but something called Baha Mar or some such. Still, not a basketball arena.
The opponent for the first round of this four team tourney (Baylor/St. Johns have the opener) is the Cavaliers from the University of Virginia. You may recall that their long-time coach, Tony Bennett, had enough of the NIL/transfer portal/rent a team era and flaked out on his team a couple weeks ago. More and more I am finding myself agreeing with guys like Bennett and while I am supposed to say something now like ‘though I am glad that the players are finally getting paid’, I don’t know. I think the net result of the NIL era is going to be less athletic scholarship opportunities for all student athletes. So, while I can certainly understand his frustration with unlimited and unregulated free agency there was, in my opinion, some legitimate concerns with when Bennett decided to resign. It also may be worth noting that UVA hasn’t won a tourney game since they won it all back in 2019.
The new coach is Ron Sanchez, 9 years an assistant under Bennett and head coach for 5 years at Charlotte. During that time Sanchez had zero NCAAT appearances. He resigned the job at the end of year five and was immediately hired as associate HC at UVA.
Sanchez, being a Bennett disciple, plays really, really slow, very little offensive rebounding, very good on the defensive glass, his teams don’t foul. . Started the season with a lackluster win against Campbell at home which dropped them 8 spots in the KP and followed that up with another performance that underwhelmed the computer against Coppin State before the big Nova win bounced them back to #76.
Sanchez is taking their old base offense and adding some new wrinkles, putting more shooters on the floor, taking more threes than they have since 2021 and the result has been the Cavaliers opening on a heater (9th in the nation in 3pt%). They are going to run a bunch of ball screens and dribble hand offs from bigs out front. Okpara especially is going to have to do a good job on the roll off of those handoffs, and our switches are going to have to be clean. They have a very high assist percentage and don’t look to have a bunch of guys who can generate there own shot. Here is a really good look at their new offense.
Besides the additional three point shooting the Cavs have posted the 7th in 2pt% defense. Here are their four factors:
Bennett leaving when he did actually may have worked to leave the cupboard full, or almost full, anyway. FSU transfer Jalen Warley bolted and still hasn’t found a landing spot, but there wasn’t a ton of defections.
The early scoring leader is Isaac McKneely (6-4, 195lb Jr) who has spent all 3 yrs at UVA – he is putting up 16pts and 3 boards. Career 43% 3pt shooter who is 11-17 out of the gate this year. Doesn’t turn it over or foul and doesn’t get to the line. Not much of a threat to get to the rim (8% of his attempts last season). Not ‘just a shooter’ but pretty close, gets over half his shots from three. They are working on him being more than just a spot up guy this season, taking jumpers off the dribble and coming of screens.
An early season surprise has been freshman Jacob Cofie (6-10, 230lb Fr) who is averaging 13pts (on 7.7 shots) top go along with 7.7 boards. Cofie is 5-11 from three, 9-12 inside the arc and has yet to miss from the line. He is 7-7 at the rim and has only taken 2 mid range shots. He recorded a double double in his 2nd career game against an underwhelming Coppin State squad.
Rounding out the double digits scorers in the early going is San Diego State transfer Elijah Saunders (6-8, 240lb Jr) with 10.3 pts and 5.3 boards a contest. Saunders is a stretch four who last year took more threes than twos though he only shot 33.1% from deep. Good if not great rebounding numbers, very efficient when he did venture inside (57% 2pt% and 66% at the rim). From the looks of these highlights at least a few of his made threes were wide stinking open (I would tell you with more certainty the % of his C&S threes that were unguarded but Synergy changed how they do their subscriptions and they wanted $3,000 a month for a script this yr – just a little outside the Hoopsville opponent research budget).
The point guard is Kansas State transfer Dai Dai Ames (6-1, 190lb Soph) who wasn’t much of a shooter last season in Manhattan (42.8% eFG%) and didn’t have big assist numbers (2 a game), so I would say the jury is still out on whether he is going be to a productive player. He did manage to get ejected in multiple games as a freshman, once for a really dirty foul against Texas and in last years Baha Mar tourney against Providence for a quick little punch.
Andrew Rohde (6-6, 180lb jr) is averaging 30 minutes a contest, though he did miss the Coppin State game entirely. He couldn’t shoot the ball from anywhere last season (37.0% eFG%).
Blake Buchanan (6-11, 215lb Soph) gives the Cavs another big who is a non shooter but good on the glass at both ends.
This team was picked 6th in the new 18 team ACC by Blue Ribbon and 5th by ACC media, they don’t have anybody on the preseason All ACC teams. Nice little neutral court win over Villanova early, though, Nova was picked 7th in the Big East. Not particularly athletic, not great at the point guard position – unless you consider McNeely as a ball handler. But they have a couple shooters, or so it seems, and they are gonna slow it down and reduce possessions which could frustrate the Vols, especially if the sight lines are tough in the conference room. They have turned it over a little early on and Ames wasn’t the best at ball security last season at K State – which could be an issue against the Vols defense. But all in all, Tennessee clearly has the better roster.
KP says this is a 10pt game, Torvik rates it a little closer at 8pts. Vols opened as 12pt favorites in Vegas and you can get Vols -12.5 or even -13 now. I think Vegas is probably right, I mean, the Vols could be off – three point variance and all and the Cavs have shot it very, very well early this season – but the defenses they have played rate out at the #299th best defensive schedule so far – not necessarily a gauntlet they have faced. Neither team plays fast, though the Vols offense has been considerably quicker than Virginia’s plodding bunch so we should be in for a low possession game where the Vols cause long possessions on the defensive end. I think UVA is gonna have trouble getting the ball into the lane and getting the Vols to chase. If TN can be disciplined with the ball screens, hand offs and rolls they should be able to force Virginia to operate their offense further away from the basket than they would like. UVA could shoot their way into the game or even into a win if the low possession variance plays in their favor – but I expect Tennessee’s defense to be a little too physical for a team working in new offensive wrinkles and breaking in a couple new faces and a big freshman.
I think Dubar logs some minutes in the one and the Vols get to play the winner of ST. Johns/Baylor.
GBO
