Post by pdlglm on Nov 7, 2024 22:47:34 GMT -5
Louisville 1-0 KP #54 Torvik #54
I hate Louisville, and I am not exactly sure how that came to be. I mean, you would think that I might have grown up with some favorable feelings just on ‘enemy of my enemy’ grounds given that they are the biggest rival for TWWNBN and were also the biggest rival for the University of Memphis when I was coming up. Still. I hate Louisville. Hated Denny Crum. Hated Pervis Ellison. Still mad about Buzz Peterson giving up that 6pt lead with a minute to go and somehow managing to lose in regulation. I enjoyed the Kenny Payne Experience very much. Won 12 games last 2 years. KP 290 and then 185. 5 wins in the ACC over two seasons.
But none of that matters for this team, everything is new as Pat Kelsey takes over for Payne. Kelsey coached Winthrop to three tourneys in 9 years and then moved to Charleston for three seasons and two more tourneys. His teams play fast – four different seasons in the top 20 of offensive Average Possession Length fast and they have been known to shoot a crap ton of threes. A Nick Nurse disciple, Kelsey wants to spread the floor with good shooters at attack the rim and the three point line. Their Rim and 3 rate last season at Charleston was 15th in the country. On defense, they run a pack line sort of thing but extends it out further than a traditional pack lone defense.
This isn’t Kenny Payne. This guy can coach. Here is the first set of the year…
All of his players are new, new to Louisville anyway. But individually they are old, old and experienced and pretty darned good. The Cardinals have seven seniors and six guys who averaged double digits a game with their old teams last year. Five guys who shot over 37% from three last season and another two guys who were at 35%. There is a whole lot to work with.
Let’s start with the Sun Belt player of the year from last year, Terrence Edwards, Jr., (6-6, 190lb Sr) who averaged 17pts a game on 333 2PA, with about 40% of his attempts at the rim. Average 3pt shooter last year though he did shoot 40% two years ago on only 60 some odd attempts. Over 40% FTR and 80% FT%, maybe a little too high on the MRA% at 29%. Scored 12pts on 7 shots in a team leading 26 minutes in the opener. He is a bucket.
Three point gunner Reyne Smith (6-2, 190lb sr) is from Australia, a 37% career 3pt shooter, deadly at the free throw line. Not much on the defensive end, ‘just a shooter’ but very good at it. Was All CAA a couple of times and averaged double digits all three years. I suggest guarding him. Played 23 minutes and scored 12pts on 4-9 from three against Morehead.
J’Von Hadley (6-6, 205lb Sr) comes in from Colorado where he last put up a wildly efficient 11.6pts a game on 63.8% TS%. Mostly an inside threat (65% of his shots at the rim) he still hit 40% from three last year on limited attempts. Varied and effective post up moves, good body control, doesn’t appear that fast but still gets to the rim. Torvik thinks he is their best player at a 4.3 player rating. Had 10 rebounds against us the last time. Become a good catch and shoot guy.
Senior Chucky Hepburn (6-2, 195lb Sr) is a Wisconsin transfer who was All Big10 defense last year; 2nd in steal% and def plus minus in conference. 9pts a game on some… meh, shooting last year but he did hit 40% from three two years ago. Not great at getting to the rim but converts 6 out of 10, shoots too many mid range shots but hits 40% of them. If you can make him put it on the floor, then percentages go way down. Doesn’t turn it over. Should be the tip of the spear on a defense that held Morehead State to 0.60 points per possession and just 12 made baskets. They turned them over 21 times and registered 12 steals.
Former All Big West 1st teamer, Aboubacar Traore (6-5, 195lb Sr) pulled down 9 boards in the opener, only slightly above his career average of 8.4 a game. The last two years he has added double digit scoring to that (12.1pts last yr at Long beach State) on an inside centric shot chart with 75% of his attempts at the rim. Traore was 25th in the country last year at FTR and shot 194 free throws. He carries a 7.8 on the Hammy Disruptivity Index. An adept passer, but he will turn it over. He struggled the first time out with 3pts on 4 shots but he looks like a solid stat stuffer.
The leading scorer from the opener is Boise State/USF transfer Kaseon Pryor (6-10, 210lb SR) who put up 13.4 pts and 7.9 boards in 26 minutes a game at South Florida last year after hardly playing at Boise State his first two years. Pryor carried decent shot splits last year 37.1%/26.8%/36.1%. 58% hit rate at the rim, 35.2% from three – 50% FTR and over 80% at the line. Top 30 in the country in defensive rebounding last season, he can put the ball on the ground, moves ok in transition. Can sit in the dunker’s spot or edge out to the three point line. 18/12 double/double in the opener in only 20 minutes of play. He can play, gonna present all sorts of problems.
Koren Johnson (6-2, 175lb Jr) was the PAC12 6th man of the year at Washington last season after putting up 11pts and 2.7 assists. Johnson shot 37% from three where he got just under 40% of his attempts. 48% inside the arc and doesn’t really get to the line but shoots them well. Decent steal numbers. Quick first step, athletic, able to get to the rim, good C&S guy. Struggled in the opener with 4 pts on 5 shots in 18 minutes with 4 fouls.
Noah Waterman (6-11, 230lb 6th year Sr) comes over from BYU as a three point centric role player (67% of his attempts from three) who hit 37% from deep last season.
James Scott (6-11, 220lb Soph) followed his coach over from Charleston, he scored 12pts and pulled 5 boards in 15 minutes against Morehead State but also had 4 fouls.
I think I like their roster better than ours.
I am not sure they are the better team and they have only played together for a Bahamas trip, couple of D2 exhibitions and the opener – but top 9 v top 9? Not sure we are better. And I am 100% sure that they absolutely dominated Morehead State out of the gate while we squeaked by Gardner Webb.
This is a tough road game against a team with a bunch of old guys who have had success in their previous stops. They are deeper than we are and are going to tax our depth with pace of play. There wasn’t anything about that opener that suggests to me that Tennessee is ready to go on the road against a KP top 50 team and win. I know
I have started this season out with pessimism, and I really, really hope to be wrong about this one. But this looks like an early season loss to me.
KP says it is a 1pt win with a 54% WP. Torvik gives the Vols a 2pt edge and a 58% WP.
Gonna need to shoot it well and slow them down and Zeigler is gonna have to play a bunch.
But I feel like this one might get out of hand.
GBO
I hate Louisville, and I am not exactly sure how that came to be. I mean, you would think that I might have grown up with some favorable feelings just on ‘enemy of my enemy’ grounds given that they are the biggest rival for TWWNBN and were also the biggest rival for the University of Memphis when I was coming up. Still. I hate Louisville. Hated Denny Crum. Hated Pervis Ellison. Still mad about Buzz Peterson giving up that 6pt lead with a minute to go and somehow managing to lose in regulation. I enjoyed the Kenny Payne Experience very much. Won 12 games last 2 years. KP 290 and then 185. 5 wins in the ACC over two seasons.
But none of that matters for this team, everything is new as Pat Kelsey takes over for Payne. Kelsey coached Winthrop to three tourneys in 9 years and then moved to Charleston for three seasons and two more tourneys. His teams play fast – four different seasons in the top 20 of offensive Average Possession Length fast and they have been known to shoot a crap ton of threes. A Nick Nurse disciple, Kelsey wants to spread the floor with good shooters at attack the rim and the three point line. Their Rim and 3 rate last season at Charleston was 15th in the country. On defense, they run a pack line sort of thing but extends it out further than a traditional pack lone defense.
This isn’t Kenny Payne. This guy can coach. Here is the first set of the year…
All of his players are new, new to Louisville anyway. But individually they are old, old and experienced and pretty darned good. The Cardinals have seven seniors and six guys who averaged double digits a game with their old teams last year. Five guys who shot over 37% from three last season and another two guys who were at 35%. There is a whole lot to work with.
Let’s start with the Sun Belt player of the year from last year, Terrence Edwards, Jr., (6-6, 190lb Sr) who averaged 17pts a game on 333 2PA, with about 40% of his attempts at the rim. Average 3pt shooter last year though he did shoot 40% two years ago on only 60 some odd attempts. Over 40% FTR and 80% FT%, maybe a little too high on the MRA% at 29%. Scored 12pts on 7 shots in a team leading 26 minutes in the opener. He is a bucket.
Three point gunner Reyne Smith (6-2, 190lb sr) is from Australia, a 37% career 3pt shooter, deadly at the free throw line. Not much on the defensive end, ‘just a shooter’ but very good at it. Was All CAA a couple of times and averaged double digits all three years. I suggest guarding him. Played 23 minutes and scored 12pts on 4-9 from three against Morehead.
J’Von Hadley (6-6, 205lb Sr) comes in from Colorado where he last put up a wildly efficient 11.6pts a game on 63.8% TS%. Mostly an inside threat (65% of his shots at the rim) he still hit 40% from three last year on limited attempts. Varied and effective post up moves, good body control, doesn’t appear that fast but still gets to the rim. Torvik thinks he is their best player at a 4.3 player rating. Had 10 rebounds against us the last time. Become a good catch and shoot guy.
Senior Chucky Hepburn (6-2, 195lb Sr) is a Wisconsin transfer who was All Big10 defense last year; 2nd in steal% and def plus minus in conference. 9pts a game on some… meh, shooting last year but he did hit 40% from three two years ago. Not great at getting to the rim but converts 6 out of 10, shoots too many mid range shots but hits 40% of them. If you can make him put it on the floor, then percentages go way down. Doesn’t turn it over. Should be the tip of the spear on a defense that held Morehead State to 0.60 points per possession and just 12 made baskets. They turned them over 21 times and registered 12 steals.
Former All Big West 1st teamer, Aboubacar Traore (6-5, 195lb Sr) pulled down 9 boards in the opener, only slightly above his career average of 8.4 a game. The last two years he has added double digit scoring to that (12.1pts last yr at Long beach State) on an inside centric shot chart with 75% of his attempts at the rim. Traore was 25th in the country last year at FTR and shot 194 free throws. He carries a 7.8 on the Hammy Disruptivity Index. An adept passer, but he will turn it over. He struggled the first time out with 3pts on 4 shots but he looks like a solid stat stuffer.
The leading scorer from the opener is Boise State/USF transfer Kaseon Pryor (6-10, 210lb SR) who put up 13.4 pts and 7.9 boards in 26 minutes a game at South Florida last year after hardly playing at Boise State his first two years. Pryor carried decent shot splits last year 37.1%/26.8%/36.1%. 58% hit rate at the rim, 35.2% from three – 50% FTR and over 80% at the line. Top 30 in the country in defensive rebounding last season, he can put the ball on the ground, moves ok in transition. Can sit in the dunker’s spot or edge out to the three point line. 18/12 double/double in the opener in only 20 minutes of play. He can play, gonna present all sorts of problems.
Koren Johnson (6-2, 175lb Jr) was the PAC12 6th man of the year at Washington last season after putting up 11pts and 2.7 assists. Johnson shot 37% from three where he got just under 40% of his attempts. 48% inside the arc and doesn’t really get to the line but shoots them well. Decent steal numbers. Quick first step, athletic, able to get to the rim, good C&S guy. Struggled in the opener with 4 pts on 5 shots in 18 minutes with 4 fouls.
Noah Waterman (6-11, 230lb 6th year Sr) comes over from BYU as a three point centric role player (67% of his attempts from three) who hit 37% from deep last season.
James Scott (6-11, 220lb Soph) followed his coach over from Charleston, he scored 12pts and pulled 5 boards in 15 minutes against Morehead State but also had 4 fouls.
I think I like their roster better than ours.
I am not sure they are the better team and they have only played together for a Bahamas trip, couple of D2 exhibitions and the opener – but top 9 v top 9? Not sure we are better. And I am 100% sure that they absolutely dominated Morehead State out of the gate while we squeaked by Gardner Webb.
This is a tough road game against a team with a bunch of old guys who have had success in their previous stops. They are deeper than we are and are going to tax our depth with pace of play. There wasn’t anything about that opener that suggests to me that Tennessee is ready to go on the road against a KP top 50 team and win. I know
I have started this season out with pessimism, and I really, really hope to be wrong about this one. But this looks like an early season loss to me.
KP says it is a 1pt win with a 54% WP. Torvik gives the Vols a 2pt edge and a 58% WP.
Gonna need to shoot it well and slow them down and Zeigler is gonna have to play a bunch.
But I feel like this one might get out of hand.
GBO
