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Post by awinatl on Apr 10, 2024 8:44:04 GMT -5
The goal is (as long as no one else leaves) to have Estrella and Aidoo be the 5s. Both are developing consistent shooting. JP is much more physical defensively. Cade Phillips is an athletic bruiser. If he takes a leap, they are more than OK. The strategy remains the same. 4 shooters on the floor. My eyes are looking directly at a jumbo wing who can guard the 4 now. That has to be the priority. 4 shooters on the floor ?? Since when ?? Edit :: just saw yours and Cherokee’s posts |
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Post by John C. on Apr 10, 2024 8:46:56 GMT -5
Estrella has more upside than either Jonas or Tobe but it can’t happen with him sitting on the bench. Same with Cameron Carr. Barnes needs to let the young birdies out of the nest. It’s time to fly!
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Post by contextmatters on Apr 10, 2024 9:55:01 GMT -5
How many times have we heard "it's not showing up in games, but this guy is a good shooter"? Sick of hearing that. Every D1 player for the most part can shoot in practice. I can drain them in my driveway too when nobody is guarding me or it's just token defense. I don't care what you do in practice, if you're hitting 25% of your three's when it counts, that's not especially helpful.
But what is helpful is having the defense think you are a good enough threat that they have to defend you. That's an absolute necessity for the rim-and-three approach that the board wanted. Look at Bama every year, as they always have someone firing away at 27%, and usually a few guys in the 30-32% range. Case in point for the Vols is Santi. Maybe it changed in the last few games (I don't know), but before that, I looked at 4-5 games to see if Santi was really passing up a bunch of "open" shots. He wasn't. I never counted more than one passed-up shot that would be defined as "unguarded" and not many that would have been good "guarded" shots for him. Teams were still playing him as a shooter.
The real issue that bchilds is talking about, however, is not how well the 1-2-3s are shooting. It's about the 4-5s Are both your big men limited to being posts/screeners, or can at least one of them pull his defender away from the paint? I thought Aidoo would be able to this year, but he didn't shoot well from 3 in the early going, and didn't take any in the later portion. So a two-big lineup this year meant a deviation from the ordinary offense. Maybe next year Aidoo and Estrella will be able to hit from outside, but if not, your new power forward better be able to (or at least make the defense think he can).
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Post by contextmatters on Apr 10, 2024 10:23:19 GMT -5
Estrella has more upside than either Jonas or Tobe but it can’t happen with him sitting on the bench. Same with Cameron Carr. Barnes needs to let the young birdies out of the nest. It’s time to fly!
Estrella's upside might not be realized next year, however, just like Tobe's wasn't this year. It would be rare for a big man to make such a big jump as a sophomore. I'd be satisfied if he can get close to Tobe's production next year, and then take over as a junior.
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Post by contextmatters on Apr 10, 2024 10:30:44 GMT -5
I can drain them in my driveway too when nobody is guarding me or it's just token defense. I don't care what you do in practice, if you're hitting 25% of your three's when it counts, that's not especially helpful.
But what is helpful is having the defense think you are a good enough threat that they have to defend you. That's an absolute necessity for the rim-and-three approach that the board wanted. Look at Bama every year, as they always have someone firing away at 27%, and usually a few guys in the 30-32% range. Case in point for the Vols is Santi. Maybe it changed in the last few games (I don't know), but before that, I looked at 4-5 games to see if Santi was really passing up a bunch of "open" shots. He wasn't. I never counted more than one passed-up shot that would be defined as "unguarded" and not many that would have been good "guarded" shots for him. Teams were still playing him as a shooter.
The real issue that bchilds is talking about, however, is not how well the 1-2-3s are shooting. It's about the 4-5s Are both your big men limited to being posts/screeners, or can at least one of them pull his defender away from the paint? I thought Aidoo would be able to this year, but he didn't shoot well from 3 in the early going, and didn't take any in the later portion. So a two-big lineup this year meant a deviation from the ordinary offense. Maybe next year Aidoo and Estrella will be able to hit from outside, but if not, your new power forward better be able to (or at least make the defense think he can).
As others have already mentioned, the other side of this is that at least half of the teams on the schedule, maybe the vast majority, are going to spread out your defense. That was the only weak spot in the 2023 defense. Nkamhoua was fine as a stretch four on offense, but never had the lateral quickness to guard the Kobe Browns of the world. So if you play an Awaka (or Avila or anyone similar) at power forward in a two-big lineup, you are also having to alter your defensive schemes. Maybe that would be worthwhile to do to try to get Awaka to stay, but if I were Awaka, I would be skeptical that Vols would do it for 20 minutes a game. It stinks, but it's understandable.
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Post by contextmatters on Apr 10, 2024 11:37:27 GMT -5
Aidoo really pissed me off in the tournament. I think he’s so weak, but I am afraid of having too much turnover. I think we could find another Awaka in the portal. 5 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 fouls are not very rare. I’m not sure how high his ceiling is.
OK. 5/5 may not be uncommon. But how uncommon is it to find a guy that can put up 5 pts and 4 rebounds in less than 15 mpg as an underclassman? And what do players that do that look like as upperclassmen? I did not know, but I haven't seen happen it very often. So I looked:
For Tennessee, the list is Ian Lockhart.
For other SEC teams, I found seven players that did that as a freshmen or sophomore. One I never heard of (Alonzo Lane), but the other six all ended up being all-conference players. Some of those did it as freshmen and then played more as sophs (like Antoine Walker), however, so those may not be the best comps.
Therefore, I looked at all major-conference players as sophomores, going back to the 80s. I found ten with <15 mpg, >5 ppg, >4 rpg. Three transferred out, but each became an all-conference player at a smaller school.
Here are the seven that stayed: - David MCormack, Kansas
- Tyrique Jones, Xavier
- Thomas Robinson, Kansas
- Jamaal Magloire, TWWNBN
- Greg Ostertag, Kansas
- Ian Lockhart, Tennessee
- Ben Coleman, Maryland
Guys, Ian Lockhart may be the worst on that list. Awaka may not hit that level, but we should not pretend that his per-minute production was a normal thing or that we can tell what his ceiling might be. This is a big loss. It may be an inevitable one in this day and age, but it's still a big loss.
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Post by pdlglm on Apr 10, 2024 11:40:43 GMT -5
The Awaka thing sucks, and I am mad about it. He is a good basketball player and a good kid. 2 years from now will be a fantastic college player.
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Post by smyrnavol on Apr 10, 2024 11:44:15 GMT -5
Aidoo really pissed me off in the tournament. I think he’s so weak, but I am afraid of having too much turnover. I think we could find another Awaka in the portal. 5 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 fouls are not very rare. I’m not sure how high his ceiling is.
OK. 5/5 may not be uncommon. But how uncommon is it to find a guy that can put up 5 pts and 4 rebounds in less than 15 mpg as an underclassman? And what do players that do that look like as upperclassmen? I did not know, but I haven't seen happen it very often. So I looked:
For Tennessee, the list is Ian Lockhart.
For other SEC teams, I found seven players that did that as a freshmen or sophomore. One I never heard of (Alonzo Lane), but the other six all ended up being all-conference players. Some of those did it as freshmen and then played more as sophs (like Antoine Walker), however, so those may not be the best comps.
Therefore, I looked at all major-conference players as sophomores, going back to the 80s. I found ten with <15 mpg, >5 ppg, >4 rpg. Three transferred out, but each became an all-conference player at a smaller school.
Here are the seven that stayed: - David MCormack, Kansas
- Tyrique Jones, Xavier
- Thomas Robinson, Kansas
- Jamaal Magloire, TWWNBN
- Greg Ostertag, Kansas
- Ian Lockhart, Tennessee
- Ben Coleman, Maryland
Guys, Ian Lockhart may be the worst on that list. Awaka may not hit that level, but we should not pretend that his per-minute production was a normal thing or that we can tell what his ceiling might be. This is a big loss. It may be an inevitable one in this day and age, but it's still a big loss.
Do you really think that Tobe Awaka is in any way comparable to Greg Ostertag and Thomas Robinson? |
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Post by contextmatters on Apr 10, 2024 12:07:11 GMT -5
OK. 5/5 may not be uncommon. But how uncommon is it to find a guy that can put up 5 pts and 4 rebounds in less than 15 mpg as an underclassman? And what do players that do that look like as upperclassmen? I did not know, but I haven't seen happen it very often. So I looked:
For Tennessee, the list is Ian Lockhart.
For other SEC teams, I found seven players that did that as a freshmen or sophomore. One I never heard of (Alonzo Lane), but the other six all ended up being all-conference players. Some of those did it as freshmen and then played more as sophs (like Antoine Walker), however, so those may not be the best comps.
Therefore, I looked at all major-conference players as sophomores, going back to the 80s. I found ten with <15 mpg, >5 ppg, >4 rpg. Three transferred out, but each became an all-conference player at a smaller school.
Here are the seven that stayed: - David MCormack, Kansas
- Tyrique Jones, Xavier
- Thomas Robinson, Kansas
- Jamaal Magloire, TWWNBN
- Greg Ostertag, Kansas
- Ian Lockhart, Tennessee
- Ben Coleman, Maryland
Guys, Ian Lockhart may be the worst on that list. Awaka may not hit that level, but we should not pretend that his per-minute production was a normal thing or that we can tell what his ceiling might be. This is a big loss. It may be an inevitable one in this day and age, but it's still a big loss.
Do you really think that Tobe Awaka is in any way comparable to Greg Ostertag and Thomas Robinson?
Doesn't remind me of Ostertag at all, and I'd be pretty shocked if he turned out like Robinson. But I could see him being Tyrique Jones or Ben Coleman (who I vaguely remember from his NBA days, although I have no idea why).
The broader point being: I don't know. Awaka getting 5/5 in 15 minutes is a lot different from an upperclass Derrick Reese getting 6/5 in 25 minutes, and Awaka did show a rare skill set with his offensive rebounding. I'd guess he's more likely to be all-conference in the Big East than a part-time banger.
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Post by goldenjay on Apr 10, 2024 12:34:16 GMT -5
Estrella has more upside than either Jonas or Tobe but it can’t happen with him sitting on the bench. Same with Cameron Carr. Barnes needs to let the young birdies out of the nest. It’s time to fly!
Estrella's upside might not be realized next year, however, just like Tobe's wasn't this year. It would be rare for a big man to make such a big jump as a sophomore. I'd be satisfied if he can get close to Tobe's production next year, and then take over as a junior.
I don't know. Big guys often make big strides from one year to the next. I think the only reason why Estrella didn't produce more this past season was that he didn't play much. He will know going into this off-season that a much bigger role is his for the taking, so I expect him to work his butt off to be ready for it. |
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Post by contextmatters on Apr 10, 2024 12:51:24 GMT -5
Estrella's upside might not be realized next year, however, just like Tobe's wasn't this year. It would be rare for a big man to make such a big jump as a sophomore. I'd be satisfied if he can get close to Tobe's production next year, and then take over as a junior.
I don't know. Big guys often make big strides from one year to the next. I think the only reason why Estrella didn't produce more this past season was that he didn't play much. He will know going into this off-season that a much bigger role is his for the taking, so I expect him to work his butt off to be ready for it.
Maybe it depends on what big strides means. I'll be happy if he comes close to replacing Awaka's production, something like 5/4 in 15 minutes, hopefully with better defense. Would that qualify as big strides for you, or are you expecting more next year?
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Post by cherokee04 on Apr 10, 2024 13:34:07 GMT -5
I can drain them in my driveway too when nobody is guarding me or it's just token defense. I don't care what you do in practice, if you're hitting 25% of your three's when it counts, that's not especially helpful.
But what is helpful is having the defense think you are a good enough threat that they have to defend you. That's an absolute necessity for the rim-and-three approach that the board wanted. Look at Bama every year, as they always have someone firing away at 27%, and usually a few guys in the 30-32% range. Case in point for the Vols is Santi. Maybe it changed in the last few games (I don't know), but before that, I looked at 4-5 games to see if Santi was really passing up a bunch of "open" shots. He wasn't. I never counted more than one passed-up shot that would be defined as "unguarded" and not many that would have been good "guarded" shots for him. Teams were still playing him as a shooter.
The real issue that bchilds is talking about, however, is not how well the 1-2-3s are shooting. It's about the 4-5s Are both your big men limited to being posts/screeners, or can at least one of them pull his defender away from the paint? I thought Aidoo would be able to this year, but he didn't shoot well from 3 in the early going, and didn't take any in the later portion. So a two-big lineup this year meant a deviation from the ordinary offense. Maybe next year Aidoo and Estrella will be able to hit from outside, but if not, your new power forward better be able to (or at least make the defense think he can).
Eventually defenses won’t be too concerned with the guy shooting sub 30% shooters. We’ll have to disagree on Santi and open looks. I totally agree that our bigs need to be true offensive threats. |
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Post by gvt11 on Apr 10, 2024 14:00:31 GMT -5
Twitter abuzz with folks saying Aidoo ready to go into portal.
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Post by smyrnavol on Apr 10, 2024 14:03:25 GMT -5
Twitter abuzz with folks saying Aidoo ready to go into portal. If that happens, maybe we could get Tobe back. That would be bad to lose both. |
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Post by wtmvol on Apr 10, 2024 14:08:12 GMT -5
This is crazy. Was really hoping these rumors weren't true.
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