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Post by pdlglm on Jul 29, 2020 13:24:56 GMT -5
Ok, I went back and looked at each Barnes tourney game. Here they are:
Providence:
89
#12 v #5 UVA L - UVA went on to E8
90
#9 v #8 Ohio State L - OSU lost next round
91
#8 v #9 Bammer L - Bammer lost next round
Clemson:
96
#9 v #8 Georgia L - UGA made sweet 16 (yes, this really happened as strange as it sounds)
97
#4 v #13 Miami Oh W
#4 v #5 Tulsa W
#4 v #1 Minnesota L - Gophers made FF
98
#6 v #11 Western Michigan L - ouch. Western lost next round
Texas
99
#7 v #10 Purdue L - Purdue makes Sweet 16
2000
#5 v #12 Indiana St W
#5 v #4 LSU L - LSU loses next game in Sweet 16
2001
#6 v #11 Temple L - Temple makes Elite 8
2002
#6 v #11 Boston College W
#6 v #3 Miss State W - only upset of a higher seed and the highest seed defeated
#6 v #2 Oregon L - Oregon makes E8
2003
#1 v #16 UNC Ash W
#1 v #9 Purdue W
#1 v #5 U Conn W
#1 v #7 Mich State W
#1 v #3 Syracuse L - Carmelo wins NC
2004
#3 v #14 Princeton W
#3 v #6 UNC W
#3 v #7 Xavier L - Xavier losses in E8
2005
#8 v #9 Nevada L - nevada loses next game
2006
#2 v #15 Penn W
#2 v #10 NC State W
#2 v #6 West Virginia W
#2 v #4 LSU L - LSU loses in FF
2007
#4 v #13 NM State W
#4 v #5 USC L - USC lost next game
2008
#2 v #15 APSU W
#2 v #7 Miami W
#2 v #3 Stanford W - again beat #3 seed
#2 v #1 Memphis L - Memphis loses title game
2009
#7 v #10 Minnesota W
#7 v #2 Duke L - Duke loses next game
2010
#8 v #9 Wake L
2011
#4 v #13 Oakland W
#4 v #5 Arizona L - Zona makes E8
2012
#11 v #6 Cincy L
2014
#7 v #10 Arizona State W
#7 v #2 Mich L - Mich makes E8
2015
#11 v #6 Butler L - Butler loses next game
2018
#3 v #14 Wright State W
#3 v #11 Loyola L - Loyola makes FF
2019
#2 v #15 Colgate W
#2 v #10 Iowa W
#2 v #3 Purdue L - purdue loses next game.
Some thoughts:
10 of the loses are in games where there is only a 1 seed difference between the team.
4 were in games he was really supposed to lose: at least a 5 seed difference.
2-7 against the #1-#3 seeds. Both wins against #3s.
3, maybe 4 really bad losses. 1998 as a #6 seed losing to the #11 Western Michigan. Agian in 2001 as a #6 losing to #11 Temple - though that temple team at least made a run. The Loyola loss and I think you could argue that loss in 2004 in the Sweet 16 against #7 Xavier as the 3 seed wasn't the best either.
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Post by knoxkid on Jul 29, 2020 13:42:13 GMT -5
"10 of the loses are in games where there is only a 1 seed difference between the team."
That makes me feel slightly better. But still...
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Post by awinatl on Jul 29, 2020 14:01:06 GMT -5
Ummm losing to an 11 seed as a 3 seed in 2018 is a bad loss on paper ..... knowing the path that 11 seed had just makes it cruel
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Post by pdlglm on Jul 29, 2020 14:01:20 GMT -5
"10 of the loses are in games where there is only a 1 seed difference between the team." That makes me feel slightly better. But still... Until you realize that Deacon is 2-10 in NCAAT games where the seed difference is 1 seed. He beat #3 Stanford as a #2 seed and #5 Tulsa as a #4 seed. Lost the rest. The one thing you can say is that he usually pars the hole as a #1 or #2 seed. Made the FF his only #1 seed and made 2 E8s in his 3 #2 seeds. Of course, the outlier was when the Vols were a #2, but to be fair he was also dealing with our programs NCAAT ghosts in that one. Plus that wasn't a foul on Turner. |
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Post by pdlglm on Jul 29, 2020 14:02:26 GMT -5
Ummm losing to an 11 seed as a 3 seed in 2018 is a bad loss on paper ..... knowing the path that 11 seed had just makes it cruel yeah, I am including that Loyola loss in the bad loss category. |
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ldsvol
Junior Member
Who do you think I think I am?
Posts: 78
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Post by ldsvol on Jul 29, 2020 15:25:19 GMT -5
You guys know I've always been a big Rick Barns supporter, but I have to say that I really wish his tournament recorded was a LOT better than it is. If it were I think he would be regarded as one of the all-time greats. The man has done pretty much everything else you can want from a head coach. But it is what it is, so there.
On the other hand, let me pose a question, what if CRB/UT never does any better than the Elite Eight during his tenure. Could you be happy with that?
I sure could, as long as we remain a "clean" program, are always competitive against solid competition and maintains the Big Orange in or very near the top 10 most of the time. Yep, I could be a pretty happy camper. Now, IF we won a Natty...my head would just explode....BOOM!
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Post by atlscribe on Jul 29, 2020 15:57:59 GMT -5
You guys know I've always been a big Rick Barns supporter, but I have to say that I really wish his tournament recorded was a LOT better than it is. If it were I think he would be regarded as one of the all-time greats. The man has done pretty much everything else you can want from a head coach. But it is what it is, so there. On the other hand, let me pose a question, what if CRB/UT never does any better than the Elite Eight during his tenure. Could you be happy with that? I sure could, as long as we remain a "clean" program, are always competitive against solid competition and maintains the Big Orange in or very near the top 10 most of the time. Yep, I could be a pretty happy camper. Now, IF we won a Natty...my head would just explode....BOOM! I mean, first, let's even get that Elite Eight. But ... sure. Given that he's 66 years old and isn't gonna coach forever, that's fine. Give us a few more years of high-level recruiting, top 20-type seasons, fun teams to watch, and an Elite Eight, then walk away with his head held high. I think most are good with that because he'd be handing off a really healthy, stable program that highly thought-of coaches would be crawling over broken glass to take over. It's only because he is 66, and this program has seemed snake-bitten, though, that this would be OK. If he were 46 and you were telling me he'd be treading water as a top-20 program and flaming out in the NCAAT every year for the next two decades, I'd reject that crap in a heartbeat. |
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Post by pdlglm on Jul 29, 2020 16:22:54 GMT -5
You guys know I've always been a big Rick Barns supporter, but I have to say that I really wish his tournament recorded was a LOT better than it is. If it were I think he would be regarded as one of the all-time greats. The man has done pretty much everything else you can want from a head coach. But it is what it is, so there. On the other hand, let me pose a question, what if CRB/UT never does any better than the Elite Eight during his tenure. Could you be happy with that? I sure could, as long as we remain a "clean" program, are always competitive against solid competition and maintains the Big Orange in or very near the top 10 most of the time. Yep, I could be a pretty happy camper. Now, IF we won a Natty...my head would just explode....BOOM! I don't think there is one person on this board who isn't a 'big Rick Barnes supporter'. We all appreciate how he has resurrected the program, and I would definitely be happy if he gets us back to the E8 and does other things you mention. We would then be a top 15 type program with all kids who could possibly be interested as well as any replacement coaches. If we were to get a FF that would just be gravy. |
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Post by afvolunteer on Jul 29, 2020 20:00:50 GMT -5
3, maybe 4 really bad losses. This kinds of sums up what I found out when looking at his final KP rankings and then when he exited. 2 maybe 3 bad losses. KP rankings don't equal seeds, so that probably explains the minor difference. What wtm and further you have pointed out, is that to me, it's not so much his crappy losses (he just doesn't have many in March given how many times he's been dancing, and honestly he has less than a lot of coaches that are much better than him)...it's just he has almost no upset wins. Given how many times he's been there, we'd expect even by luck that he'd have accidentally won a few of them.
Thanks for compiling this. This place is the best hoops site anywhere, and I'll (internet) fight anyone who says otherwise.
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Post by pdlglm on Jul 29, 2020 20:06:27 GMT -5
3, maybe 4 really bad losses. This kinds of sums up what I found out when looking at his final KP rankings and then when he exited. 2 maybe 3 bad losses. KP rankings don't equal seeds, so that probably explains the minor difference. What wtm and further you have pointed out, is that to me, it's not so much his crappy losses (he just doesn't have many in March given how many times he's been dancing, and honestly he has less than a lot of coaches that are much better than him)...it's just he has almost no upset wins. Given how many times he's been there, we'd expect even by luck that he'd have accidentally won a few of them.
Thanks for compiling this. This place is the best hoops site anywhere, and I'll (internet) fight anyone who says otherwise.
yep. Not just few upset losses but few wins when the scales are balanced. |
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Post by cherokee04 on Jul 29, 2020 20:50:33 GMT -5
3, maybe 4 really bad losses. This kinds of sums up what I found out when looking at his final KP rankings and then when he exited. 2 maybe 3 bad losses. KP rankings don't equal seeds, so that probably explains the minor difference. What wtm and further you have pointed out, is that to me, it's not so much his crappy losses (he just doesn't have many in March given how many times he's been dancing, and honestly he has less than a lot of coaches that are much better than him)...it's just he has almost no upset wins. Given how many times he's been there, we'd expect even by luck that he'd have accidentally won a few of them.
Thanks for compiling this. This place is the best hoops site anywhere, and I'll (internet) fight anyone who says otherwise.
Good stuff. Yes, this is why I'm not really in the smaller group that believes RB sucks in March, but just that his results are sort of lukewarm. Although I guess the case can be made that with most of his success coming in that 6-7 year period in the first half of his Texas tenure, his March results for the majority of the past 8-10 years really have trended toward the sucky end of the spectrum (although they probably aren't really super different from his regular season results in several of those years. I now see that this site has gone from 25 to 36 members in the past 24 hours, and it makes me happy to know that my bitching and moaning constructive criticism on the 247 site has helped produce some of that as my contribution to our board here, since I don't provide the real hoops-nerd level of analysis that you guys can pull out of your asses create from your knowledge of the game itself.  |
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Post by afvolunteer on Jul 29, 2020 23:35:43 GMT -5
This kinds of sums up what I found out when looking at his final KP rankings and then when he exited. 2 maybe 3 bad losses. KP rankings don't equal seeds, so that probably explains the minor difference. What wtm and further you have pointed out, is that to me, it's not so much his crappy losses (he just doesn't have many in March given how many times he's been dancing, and honestly he has less than a lot of coaches that are much better than him)...it's just he has almost no upset wins. Given how many times he's been there, we'd expect even by luck that he'd have accidentally won a few of them.
Thanks for compiling this. This place is the best hoops site anywhere, and I'll (internet) fight anyone who says otherwise.
yep. Not just few upset losses but few wins when the scales are balanced. Yes, exactly. I like your earlier optimistic post...maybe Barnes can simultaneously turn his own and TN’s NCAAT historical storyline around. |
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Post by wtmvol on Jul 30, 2020 15:18:08 GMT -5
After thinking this through and adding a little more to the metrics, there are some more positives backed up by data...
We all know that Barnes makes the tournament at a high clip, but I wanted to be sure that was actually "high" compared to his peers. Good news, it is high. Barnes makes the tournament at a 77% clip. Only the blue blood coaches and Mark Few are higher. Coach K is at 80%. Calipari is at 74%. Pearl is at 67%. Cuonzo is a bit down the list in this category at 27%...
So, for a guy that has for his entire career coached at schools better known for football (well, after his Providence days anyway), making the tournament 77% of the time is downright awesome. You look at some of these other coaches... really, really good coaches like Billy Donovan, Bruce Pearl, Bob Huggins, Jay Wright... none of those guys make the tournament at that high of a clip.
Also, as several have pointed out in this thread, it's not that Barnes has a ton of bad losses. It's just that he doesn't have any great wins either. I mentioned Bob Huggins earlier. He does have a better tournament resume than Barnes. He gets 1.38 wins per tournament appearance compared to Barnes's 1.00. But he's also had an average starting seed of 5.00 compared to 6.08 for Barnes, so you would expect to see a little bit more success from Huggins. In contrast, Barnes doesn't look so hot compared to Pearl. Pearl has an avg starting seed of 6.6 with a 1.5 wins per appearance. So he's getting 50% more wins with a worse starting seed. I guess that last part wasn't so much adding positives into the thread, but still, I think it helps to see it laid out like that.
It's also interesting to look at Izzo's numbers. Comparing him to Self, Self is averaging starting out a full 2 seed lines higher than Izzo, yet Izzo has a higher wins per appearance. Izzo is averaging better than a Sweet 16 every year with an average starting seed right around 5. That's really solid.
Anyway, I could look at this crap for hours, but probably should get back to doing real, actual work...
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Post by pdlglm on Jul 30, 2020 15:43:25 GMT -5
After thinking this through and adding a little more to the metrics, there are some more positives backed up by data... We all know that Barnes makes the tournament at a high clip, but I wanted to be sure that was actually "high" compared to his peers. Good news, it is high. Barnes makes the tournament at a 77% clip. Only the blue blood coaches and Mark Few are higher. Coach K is at 80%. Calipari is at 74%. Pearl is at 67%. Cuonzo is a bit down the list in this category at 27%... So, for a guy that has for his entire career coached at schools better known for football (well, after his Providence days anyway), making the tournament 77% of the time is downright awesome. You look at some of these other coaches... really, really good coaches like Billy Donovan, Bruce Pearl, Bob Huggins, Jay Wright... none of those guys make the tournament at that high of a clip. Also, as several have pointed out in this thread, it's not that Barnes has a ton of bad losses. It's just that he doesn't have any great wins either. I mentioned Bob Huggins earlier. He does have a better tournament resume than Barnes. He gets 1.38 wins per tournament appearance compared to Barnes's 1.00. But he's also had an average starting seed of 5.00 compared to 6.08 for Barnes, so you would expect to see a little bit more success from Huggins. In contrast, Barnes doesn't look so hot compared to Pearl. Pearl has an avg starting seed of 6.6 with a 1.5 wins per appearance. So he's getting 50% more wins with a worse starting seed. I guess that last part wasn't so much adding positives into the thread, but still, I think it helps to see it laid out like that. It's also interesting to look at Izzo's numbers. Comparing him to Self, Self is averaging starting out a full 2 seed lines higher than Izzo, yet Izzo has a higher wins per appearance. Izzo is averaging better than a Sweet 16 every year with an average starting seed right around 5. That's really solid. Anyway, I could look at this crap for hours, but probably should get back to doing real, actual work... Hey, this is your Hoopsville work. Darned good work too, we will double your pay. |
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Post by atlscribe on Jul 30, 2020 15:50:17 GMT -5
After thinking this through and adding a little more to the metrics, there are some more positives backed up by data... We all know that Barnes makes the tournament at a high clip, but I wanted to be sure that was actually "high" compared to his peers. Good news, it is high. Barnes makes the tournament at a 77% clip. Only the blue blood coaches and Mark Few are higher. Coach K is at 80%. Calipari is at 74%. Pearl is at 67%. Cuonzo is a bit down the list in this category at 27%... So, for a guy that has for his entire career coached at schools better known for football (well, after his Providence days anyway), making the tournament 77% of the time is downright awesome. You look at some of these other coaches... really, really good coaches like Billy Donovan, Bruce Pearl, Bob Huggins, Jay Wright... none of those guys make the tournament at that high of a clip. Also, as several have pointed out in this thread, it's not that Barnes has a ton of bad losses. It's just that he doesn't have any great wins either. I mentioned Bob Huggins earlier. He does have a better tournament resume than Barnes. He gets 1.38 wins per tournament appearance compared to Barnes's 1.00. But he's also had an average starting seed of 5.00 compared to 6.08 for Barnes, so you would expect to see a little bit more success from Huggins. In contrast, Barnes doesn't look so hot compared to Pearl. Pearl has an avg starting seed of 6.6 with a 1.5 wins per appearance. So he's getting 50% more wins with a worse starting seed. I guess that last part wasn't so much adding positives into the thread, but still, I think it helps to see it laid out like that. It's also interesting to look at Izzo's numbers. Comparing him to Self, Self is averaging starting out a full 2 seed lines higher than Izzo, yet Izzo has a higher wins per appearance. Izzo is averaging better than a Sweet 16 every year with an average starting seed right around 5. That's really solid. Anyway, I could look at this crap for hours, but probably should get back to doing real, actual work... Hey, this is your Hoopsville work. Darned good work too, we will double your pay. Whatever percentage you increase his pay, I'll double it. |
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