|
|
Post by wtmvol on Jul 28, 2020 13:17:21 GMT -5
Discussion in another thread got me to wondering how Barnes fares in March compared to his peers. My hope was that the data would show that although his teams have gone out early a bunch, that it wasn't nearly as bad as it seemed. March is hard on everyone, so my hypothesis was that I could show that he held his own even up there against the best in the business. Unfortunately, I was wrong. It ain't pretty. Now, one thing he has going for him is that he nearly always makes the tournament. And like has been pointed out, the tournament is a numbers game. If you consistently get in, eventually the breaks go your way and you make a deep run. And he has made a deep run. 3 deep runs (Elite 8 or better) to be exact. And if he comes down with COVID and is forced to retire (how Tennessee would that be?), he does have a Final 4 on his resume that no one can take from him. Many good coaches have come and gone without one of those.
But that's about as much lipstick as I can put on this pig. I put Barnes up against 26 other coaches. Some of them are obviously the best out there. Others I threw in for fun. Before I go on, let me reiterate that I love Rick Barnes and I love that he's our coach. I have nothing against him and would absolutely LOVE to see him tear it up in March because honestly he deserves it. But data is data. So here we go...
Some notables from this list of 27 coaches I came up with:
- Barnes ranks 2nd to last in tournament win % (ahead of only Mick Cronin). Another long tenured coach that I suspected didn't do too well in March, Bob Huggins, has a better resume than Barnes. He's won 9 more games in just as many tourney appearances, more Final 4's, more Elite 8's, and more Sweet 16's. And that's not to say that Huggins has killed it in the tournament. Like Barnes, he's kind of a known underachiever in the tournament
- Of coaches with 15 or more tournaments under their belt on this list, Barnes's 29% clip of making it to at least the Sweet 16 ranks last
- Now, you could say, now wait a minute... comparing Barnes to guys like Coach K, Roy Williams, Bill Self, and Calipari in terms of sweet 16% isn't really fair. Those other guys are often 1 or 2 seeds, so they consistently have an easier path. And that is somewhat true. But I also looked at # of wins as a lower seeded team, and # of losses as a higher seeded team. That's a tough category to succeed in if you're always near the top because if you're a 1 seed, you can't even score a win as a lower seeded team. And yet, with the exception of Tony Bennett who somehow has never won a tournament game against a higher seeded team, Barnes is dead last. He has a grand total of 1 win in 24 tournaments against a team seeded higher than his team (2002 when 6 seeded Texas beat 3 seed Mississippi St in the 2nd Round). Barnes has 14 losses to teams seeded below him.
- This exercise has made me realize how ridiculous Tom Izzo is in March. He makes Sweet 16's about 2 out of every 3. In 22 tournaments, he has 15 wins as the lower seeded team against only 8 losses as the higher seeded team. Boeheim is the only other coach even close to him in # of wins as the lower seeded team, and he's been coaching since the late 1800's. Some other coaches out there have a higher win % and have made more Sweet 16's, but Izzo has done it seemingly regardless of where his team is seeded.
So here is the list. I put the obvious guys on here. Hopefully I didn't leave anyone out, but I certainly could have... | Coach | Appearances | Wins | Losses | Win % | Championships | Final 4's | Elite 8's | Sweet 16's | Sweet 16 % | Wins as Underdog | Losses as Favorite | | Mike Krzyzewski | 35 | 97 | 30 | 76% | 5 | 12 | 16 | 25 | 71% | 5 | 21 | | Roy Williams | 29 | 79 | 26 | 75% | 3 | 9 | 13 | 19 | 66% | 5 | 13 | | Chris Beard | 3 | 9 | 3 | 75% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 67% | 5 | 0 | | Billy Donovan | 14 | 35 | 12 | 74% | 2 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 57% | 6 | 9 | | John Calipari | 20 | 51 | 19 | 73% | 1 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 75% | 6 | 10 | | Tom Izzo | 22 | 52 | 21 | 71% | 1 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 64% | 15 | 8 | | Bill Self | 21 | 48 | 20 | 71% | 1 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 62% | 4 | 14 | | Jay Wright | 16 | 28 | 14 | 67% | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 38% | 6 | 5 | | Tony Bennett | 9 | 16 | 8 | 67% | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 44% | 0 | 6 | | Frank Martin | 5 | 10 | 5 | 67% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 40% | 4 | 1 | | Thad Matta | 13 | 24 | 13 | 65% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 46% | 5 | 7 | | Jim Boeheim | 34 | 58 | 33 | 64% | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 53% | 13 | 17 | | Sean Miller | 11 | 19 | 11 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 64% | 3 | 4 | | Ben Howland | 11 | 19 | 11 | 63% | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 45% | 2 | 5 | | Mike White | 3 | 5 | 3 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 33% | 1 | 1 | | Mark Few | 20 | 31 | 20 | 61% | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 45% | 7 | 7 | | Bruce Pearl | 10 | 15 | 10 | 60% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 50% | 7 | 3 | | Bob Huggins | 24 | 33 | 24 | 58% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 38% | 3 | 12 | | Scott Drew | 8 | 11 | 8 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2 | 3 | | Will Wade | 3 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 33% | 1 | 0 | | Buzz Williams | 8 | 10 | 8 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% | 3 | 4 | | Leonard Hamilton | 10 | 12 | 10 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 40% | 6 | 6 | | Dana Altman | 14 | 15 | 14 | 52% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 29% | 7 | 3 | | Rick Barnes | 24 | 24 | 24 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 29% | 1 | 14 | | Shaka Smart | 7 | 7 | 7 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14% | 5 | 3 | | Cuonzo Martin | 3 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 33% | 1 | 2 | | Mick Cronin | 11 | 6 | 11 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9% | 1 | 3 |
|
|
|
|
Post by cherokee04 on Jul 28, 2020 15:58:51 GMT -5
Discussion in another thread got me to wondering how Barnes fares in March compared to his peers. My hope was that the data would show that although his teams have gone out early a bunch, that it wasn't nearly as bad as it seemed. March is hard on everyone, so my hypothesis was that I could show that he held his own even up there against the best in the business. Unfortunately, I was wrong. It ain't pretty. Now, one thing he has going for him is that he nearly always makes the tournament. And like has been pointed out, the tournament is a numbers game. If you consistently get in, eventually the breaks go your way and you make a deep run. And he has made a deep run. 3 deep runs (Elite 8 or better) to be exact. And if he comes down with COVID and is forced to retire (how Tennessee would that be?), he does have a Final 4 on his resume that no one can take from him. Many good coaches have come and gone without one of those. But that's about as much lipstick as I can put on this pig. I put Barnes up against 26 other coaches. Some of them are obviously the best out there. Others I threw in for fun. Before I go on, let me reiterate that I love Rick Barnes and I love that he's our coach. I have nothing against him and would absolutely LOVE to see him tear it up in March because honestly he deserves it. But data is data. So here we go... Some notables from this list of 27 coaches I came up with: - Barnes ranks 2nd to last in tournament win % (ahead of only Mick Cronin). Another long tenured coach that I suspected didn't do too well in March, Bob Huggins, has a better resume than Barnes. He's won 9 more games in just as many tourney appearances, more Final 4's, more Elite 8's, and more Sweet 16's. And that's not to say that Huggins has killed it in the tournament. Like Barnes, he's kind of a known underachiever in the tournament
- Of coaches with 15 or more tournaments under their belt on this list, Barnes's 29% clip of making it to at least the Sweet 16 ranks last
- Now, you could say, now wait a minute... comparing Barnes to guys like Coach K, Roy Williams, Bill Self, and Calipari in terms of sweet 16% isn't really fair. Those other guys are often 1 or 2 seeds, so they consistently have an easier path. And that is somewhat true. But I also looked at # of wins as a lower seeded team, and # of losses as a higher seeded team. That's a tough category to succeed in if you're always near the top because if you're a 1 seed, you can't even score a win as a lower seeded team. And yet, with the exception of Tony Bennett who somehow has never won a tournament game against a higher seeded team, Barnes is dead last. He has a grand total of 1 win in 24 tournaments against a team seeded higher than his team (2002 when 6 seeded Texas beat 3 seed Mississippi St in the 2nd Round). Barnes has 14 losses to teams seeded below him.
- This exercise has made me realize how ridiculous Tom Izzo is in March. He makes Sweet 16's about 2 out of every 3. In 22 tournaments, he has 15 wins as the lower seeded team against only 8 losses as the higher seeded team. Boeheim is the only other coach even close to him in # of wins as the lower seeded team, and he's been coaching since the late 1800's. Some other coaches out there have a higher win % and have made more Sweet 16's, but Izzo has done it seemingly regardless of where his team is seeded.
So here is the list. I put the obvious guys on here. Hopefully I didn't leave anyone out, but I certainly could have... | Coach | Appearances | Wins | Losses | Win % | Championships | Final 4's | Elite 8's | Sweet 16's | Sweet 16 % | Wins as Underdog | Losses as Favorite | | Mike Krzyzewski | 35 | 97 | 30 | 76% | 5 | 12 | 16 | 25 | 71% | 5 | 21 | | Roy Williams | 29 | 79 | 26 | 75% | 3 | 9 | 13 | 19 | 66% | 5 | 13 | | Chris Beard | 3 | 9 | 3 | 75% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 67% | 5 | 0 | | Billy Donovan | 14 | 35 | 12 | 74% | 2 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 57% | 6 | 9 | | John Calipari | 20 | 51 | 19 | 73% | 1 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 75% | 6 | 10 | | Tom Izzo | 22 | 52 | 21 | 71% | 1 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 64% | 15 | 8 | | Bill Self | 21 | 48 | 20 | 71% | 1 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 62% | 4 | 14 | | Jay Wright | 16 | 28 | 14 | 67% | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 38% | 6 | 5 | | Tony Bennett | 9 | 16 | 8 | 67% | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 44% | 0 | 6 | | Frank Martin | 5 | 10 | 5 | 67% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 40% | 4 | 1 | | Thad Matta | 13 | 24 | 13 | 65% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 46% | 5 | 7 | | Jim Boeheim | 34 | 58 | 33 | 64% | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 53% | 13 | 17 | | Sean Miller | 11 | 19 | 11 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 64% | 3 | 4 | | Ben Howland | 11 | 19 | 11 | 63% | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 45% | 2 | 5 | | Mike White | 3 | 5 | 3 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 33% | 1 | 1 | | Mark Few | 20 | 31 | 20 | 61% | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 45% | 7 | 7 | | Bruce Pearl | 10 | 15 | 10 | 60% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 50% | 7 | 3 | | Bob Huggins | 24 | 33 | 24 | 58% | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 38% | 3 | 12 | | Scott Drew | 8 | 11 | 8 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2 | 3 | | Will Wade | 3 | 4 | 3 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 33% | 1 | 0 | | Buzz Williams | 8 | 10 | 8 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% | 3 | 4 | | Leonard Hamilton | 10 | 12 | 10 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 40% | 6 | 6 | | Dana Altman | 14 | 15 | 14 | 52% | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 29% | 7 | 3 | | Rick Barnes | 24 | 24 | 24 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 29% | 1 | 14 | | Shaka Smart | 7 | 7 | 7 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14% | 5 | 3 | | Cuonzo Martin | 3 | 3 | 3 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 33% | 1 | 2 | | Mick Cronin | 11 | 6 | 11 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 9% | 1 | 3 |
As Christoph Walz said in "Inglorious Bastards", "That's a bingo!". This is pretty much my view as well, and I added a post in my other thread to draw some of this out, but this is good info. I particularly did NOT know the info you shared on Rick's tourney record against higher and lower seeded teams. Assuming your data is correct (and I'm too lazy now to go look), one win in 24 tourneys against a higher seeded team is pretty unbelievable. And add 14 losses against lower seeded teams, and that more or less tracks with the reputation Barnes had prior to UT - good coach who gets talented players and wins at a high level with them, but does not blow anyone away as a gameday manager. That sounds harsh, but that is what I had always read and heard about Barnes for years. I do think someone could ask how you compiled the list of 26 other coaches for comparison, but looking at the list it doesn't appear to be cherry-picking a list that is heavily favored to outperform him. The man's regular vs post season results stand out. And like you, I like Rick, think he's a good coach, think he has this program trending the right way and want him to experience some huge success in March at the end of his career like the run he had for a 6-7 period early in his time at Texas. That would be fun for us Vol fans, a really nice way to go out for Rick, and go a long way toward putting UT hoops on solid footing for the post-Rick future. But it's UT hoops, so even if Rick does all of that, there will likely be some unexpected nut punch to the program that puts us back on a roller coaster for awhile. I'd like to see this program become a model of NCAAT consistency. I think all the support and factors are there for this program to consistently battle near the top of the SEC and make the tourney most of the time - big fan support, great facilities, a state with strong basketball talent in the high school ranks and a fertile natural recruiting territory outside the imaginary state lines - the Carolinas and Atlantic Coast in general, and Atlanta in particular. I will add one final note of interest (to me, at least) that I'm surprised didn't jump out at me earlier: Given that Rick has been to the NCAAT 24 times, and his record is exactly 24-24 (Let's call this "The Rule of 24"), then we could say his "average" NCAAT performance over his career is to get to the 2nd round and then bow out. That obviously misses some things, such as the fact that an average like that can hide several very good performances. But to have an average of getting knocked out in the second round of the tourney, then IF there were several deep runs hidden in that average, it would also have to mean that there were an awful lot of quick exits. And there are, as I showed in my post in the other thread - 11 first round exits and 6 more 2nd round exits. Add in the numbers you provided on his wins against higher seeded teams (almost non-existent) and losses to lower seeded teams (not AS big a deal to me over the course of 24 years EXCEPT as it relates to the lack of winning against higher seeds) and the case becomes clearer to me. And one other problem for Rick is that unfortunately the vast majority of his tourney success came quite a few years ago. The guy does not suck in March, but his March performances on the whole are not along the lines of his regular season performances. If he had spent the bulk of his career at Providence, where he started out (minus a single year at either George Washington or George Mason I think it was), then I could understand that. I would expect it even. But he has spent the bulk of his career at Texas, with another 10 years or so at Clemson and Tennessee. If you can win at a strong clip in the regular season at those schools, that ought to equate to some very strong tourney runs. And he has had a few, but just not enough on the whole IMO. |
|
|
|
Post by smyrnavol on Jul 28, 2020 16:15:22 GMT -5
Yep, he has always sucked in the tournament, for whatever reason. He is Bobby Cox. Regular season, he’s lights out. Post season play, it’s the same thing every year. Andy Reid was like this until recently, too.
|
|
|
|
Post by gvt11 on Jul 28, 2020 16:32:49 GMT -5
Yep, he has always sucked in the tournament, for whatever reason. He is Bobby Cox. Regular season, he’s lights out. Post season play, it’s the same thing every year. Andy Reid was like this until recently, too. Tournament play puts a premium on in game coaching. I don't think that's Barnes' strong suit. He's good at development and conditioning. During the game, he relies on the kids to figure it out themselves, based on what he has taught them. That's probably a good model in a long, regular season. In the heat of the moment in a high pressure tournament environment, the coach needs to be ready to take charge. That's one of the reasons I'm hesitant about the upcoming season. Lots of talent, but much of it is young talent and they may need more in game guidance than Barnes is prepared to give. |
|
|
|
Post by afvolunteer on Jul 28, 2020 17:25:56 GMT -5
Yikes, looks like I have some crow to eat.  I will say that I don't think much of that surprised me except for one blatant stat...wins as an underdog. That's a rough looking number. Only 1? That's just bad. So punching above his weight, winning more than he should've, maybe hasn't happened as often as I wanted to gave him credit for. That and/or maybe the seedings are better reflective of the regular season expectations than the KP rankings, which is what I was using. As the resident Hoopsville NCAAT bracketologist, no one can answer that better than wtm anyway!
But beyond that, finishing/exiting about where expected doesn't seem crazy different from most of those coaches, even the greats. I mean losses as the favorite is really the barometer of "choking" in the dance, right? And those numbers don't seem terrible to me. 14 seems like a large number but out of 24 total losses, he's lost as a favorite 58% if the time. Coach K loses as a favorite 70% of the time (again, obviously he's been a favorite more). Billy Donovan and Tony Bennett lose 75% of the time as a favorite. Roy Williams is at 50%. Izzo....that guy crushes it only losing 38% of the time as a favorite (Mark Few only loses 35% as a favorite). There are outliers on the high and low side, but Barnes hovering in the 50% mark backs up to me what the KP eyeball test told me. He exits a tad bit early than he should. Coach K does it way more, but they're not even really comparable in the postseason (Coach K crushes him in all other categories) and all the other data in your chart shows why. But I don't think anyone is surprised by that.
Anyway, Barnes doesn't make deep runs in the tourney, that much is clear. But at least I'm not still personally convinced that he's quite the NCAAT choker that he's made out to be. What I'm more convinced of now though is that we shouldn't expect much from his teams if he's not seeded high, cause historically he doesn't pull off upsets, like at all. That's not super surprising to me, but how infrequent/borderline non-existent was.
Also, huge thanks to wtm for compiling all this data!
|
|
|
|
Post by afvolunteer on Jul 28, 2020 17:26:43 GMT -5
Yep, he has always sucked in the tournament, for whatever reason. He is Bobby Cox. Regular season, he’s lights out. Post season play, it’s the same thing every year. Andy Reid was like this until recently, too. Tournament play puts a premium on in game coaching. I don't think that's Barnes' strong suit. He's good at development and conditioning. During the game, he relies on the kids to figure it out themselves, based on what he has taught them. That's probably a good model in a long, regular season. In the heat of the moment in a high pressure tournament environment, the coach needs to be ready to take charge. That's one of the reasons I'm hesitant about the upcoming season. Lots of talent, but much of it is young talent and they may need more in game guidance than Barnes is prepared to give. 100% agree with all of this. |
|
|
|
Post by cherokee04 on Jul 28, 2020 17:47:01 GMT -5
Yikes, looks like I have some crow to eat. I will say that I don't think much of that surprised me except for one blatant stat...wins as an underdog. That's a rough looking number. Only 1? That's just bad. So punching above his weight, winning more than he should've, maybe hasn't happened as often as I wanted to gave him credit for. That and/or maybe the seedings are better reflective of the regular season expectations than the KP rankings, which is what I was using. As the resident Hoopsville NCAAT bracketologist, no one can answer that better than wtm anyway!
But beyond that, finishing/exiting about where expected doesn't seem crazy different from most of those coaches, even the greats. I mean losses as the favorite is really the barometer of "choking" in the dance, right? And those numbers don't seem terrible to me. 14 seems like a large number but out of 24 total losses, he's lost as a favorite 58% if the time. Coach K loses as a favorite 70% of the time (again, obviously he's been a favorite more). Billy Donovan and Tony Bennett lose 75% of the time as a favorite. Roy Williams is at 50%. Izzo....that guy crushes it only losing 38% of the time as a favorite (Mark Few only loses 35% as a favorite). There are outliers on the high and low side, but Barnes hovering in the 50% mark backs up to me what the KP eyeball test told me. He exits a tad bit early than he should. Coach K does it way more, but they're not even really comparable in the postseason (Coach K crushes him in all other categories) and all the other data in your chart shows why. But I don't think anyone is surprised by that.
Anyway, Barnes doesn't make deep runs in the tourney, that much is clear. But at least I'm not still personally convinced that he's quite the NCAAT choker that he's made out to be. What I'm more convinced of now though is that we shouldn't expect much from his teams if he's not seeded high, cause historically he doesn't pull off upsets, like at all. That's not super surprising to me, but how infrequent/borderline non-existent was.
Also, huge thanks to wtm for compiling all this data!
Yes, the wins as a lower seed vs. losses as a higher seed made a stronger case than I made. And like you, I posted that I didn't have an issue with the flat number (14) of losses as a higher seed. In a tourney that happens fairly frequently. But when you place it in context with wins as a lower seed, you get a 1-14 record. I realize you can't quite do that either, because if you are a higher seed more often, then it is more likely that your number of losses as a higher seed will exceed wins as a lower seed. And I don't know how many of his 48 games have been as a higher or lower seed. But still, 1-14 seems weak. It's not that he flat stinks in March IMO, as some are saying. But I do think his March performances should be better on the whole. Worse, the bulk of the tourney success he does have is well in his rearview mirror. That could change, and I'm hoping it does. |
|
|
|
Post by atlscribe on Jul 28, 2020 19:23:05 GMT -5
Yep, he has always sucked in the tournament, for whatever reason. He is Bobby Cox. Regular season, he’s lights out. Post season play, it’s the same thing every year. Andy Reid was like this until recently, too. Tournament play puts a premium on in game coaching. I don't think that's Barnes' strong suit. He's good at development and conditioning. During the game, he relies on the kids to figure it out themselves, based on what he has taught them. That's probably a good model in a long, regular season. In the heat of the moment in a high pressure tournament environment, the coach needs to be ready to take charge. That's one of the reasons I'm hesitant about the upcoming season. Lots of talent, but much of it is young talent and they may need more in game guidance than Barnes is prepared to give. First off, what a great bit of research from wtmvol. That's some quality offseason stuff. I'm definitely with gvt on this, in terms of an explanation of the numbers. Barnes isn't the guy you'd turn to if you had to win one game for your life on X's and O's alone. That guy might be Izzo or ... oh man, I've always loved Brad Stevens for this. He just figures out how to put his guys in a position to win, though I've always wondered if his style is actually better suited for college than the pros. But I digress ... Barnes' weakness can potentially be overcome by enough elite talent or (maybe) enough on-floor leadership. His style worked pretty well when the team had guys like Grant and Schofield taking control in tough moments. Even that hit a wall, though. You just don't get the elite senior talent around these days. So, what can we say about the one team he took to the Final Four? It was 2002-03 Texas, in case you've forgotten. That team had a sophomore at the point, but he was a star in TJ Ford. Played a lot freshman year, and was a top-10 pick later that year. He had the 2nd-best assist rate in the country. Beyond TJ, the players with the next three highest percentages of minutes played were Brandon Mouton, James Thomas and Brad Boddicker, all pretty experienced juniors. Royal Ivey, another junior, played a good bit too. That team was incredibly efficient on offense (3rd nationally) and in offensive rebounding (2nd). They didn't turn other teams over but, probably largely because of TJ, they didn't turn it over themselves either. Does this Vols team have a TJ Ford? Does it need one? Can we learn anything from that 2002-03 Texas team profile if we want to push past whatever March shortcomings CRB has? Or is a sample size of one too small, so stop trying to draw parallels, dummy atl? |
|
|
|
Post by cherokee04 on Jul 28, 2020 20:05:20 GMT -5
Tournament play puts a premium on in game coaching. I don't think that's Barnes' strong suit. He's good at development and conditioning. During the game, he relies on the kids to figure it out themselves, based on what he has taught them. That's probably a good model in a long, regular season. In the heat of the moment in a high pressure tournament environment, the coach needs to be ready to take charge. That's one of the reasons I'm hesitant about the upcoming season. Lots of talent, but much of it is young talent and they may need more in game guidance than Barnes is prepared to give. First off, what a great bit of research from wtmvol. That's some quality offseason stuff. I'm definitely with gvt on this, in terms of an explanation of the numbers. Barnes isn't the guy you'd turn to if you had to win one game for your life on X's and O's alone. That guy might be Izzo or ... oh man, I've always loved Brad Stevens for this. He just figures out how to put his guys in a position to win, though I've always wondered if his style is actually better suited for college than the pros. But I digress ... Barnes' weakness can potentially be overcome by enough elite talent or (maybe) enough on-floor leadership. His style worked pretty well when the team had guys like Grant and Schofield taking control in tough moments. Even that hit a wall, though. You just don't get the elite senior talent around these days. So, what can we say about the one team he took to the Final Four? It was 2002-03 Texas, in case you've forgotten. That team had a sophomore at the point, but he was a star in TJ Ford. Played a lot freshman year, and was a top-10 pick later that year. He had the 2nd-best assist rate in the country. Beyond TJ, the players with the next three highest percentages of minutes played were Brandon Mouton, James Thomas and Brad Boddicker, all pretty experienced juniors. Royal Ivey, another junior, played a good bit too. That team was incredibly efficient on offense (3rd nationally) and in offensive rebounding (2nd). They didn't turn other teams over but, probably largely because of TJ, they didn't turn it over themselves either. Does this Vols team have a TJ Ford? Does it need one? Can we learn anything from that 2002-03 Texas team profile if we want to push past whatever March shortcomings CRB has? Or is a sample size of one too small, so stop trying to draw parallels, dummy atl? Good stuff. If I were to try to sum up the difference in coaching in the regular season vs. in the NCAAT, does it sound like an oversimplification to say that the regular season success is less about in-game management (i.e. X's/O's) than about developing the team, developing the individual players' skills, creating a culture, etc., while the NCAAT puts more of a premium on the in-game coaching? |
|
|
|
Post by pdlglm on Jul 28, 2020 21:54:23 GMT -5
except that Deacon's in-game coaching at UT has been pretty good. Or at least alot better than I expected when he was hired. We've discussed it a bunch.
But still, this is a tremendous thread and great work by wtm. I mean absolutely great work.
|
|
|
|
Post by cherokee04 on Jul 28, 2020 22:24:53 GMT -5
except that Deacon's in-game coaching at UT has been pretty good. Or at least alot better than I expected when he was hired. We've discussed it a bunch. But still, this is a tremendous thread and great work by wtm. I mean absolutely great work. Yes, Barnes flipped the script it seems like when he got to UT. He wasn't tearing it up on the recruiting trail early on like we thought, but then developed a winning program through steady development of solid but not blue-chip type recruits. I think his in-game coaching has been fine, but I actually think more of the success he had was based on his development of players and the culture he established. Our guys worked hard and improved a bunch, and they showed a hunger on the court that I had not seen since Pearl. |
|
|
|
Post by awinatl on Jul 28, 2020 22:25:42 GMT -5
except that Deacon's in-game coaching at UT has been pretty good. Or at least alot better than I expected when he was hired. We've discussed it a bunch. But still, this is a tremendous thread and great work by wtm. I mean absolutely great work. Except in March :-( |
|
|
|
Post by atlscribe on Jul 29, 2020 7:01:47 GMT -5
except that Deacon's in-game coaching at UT has been pretty good. Or at least alot better than I expected when he was hired. We've discussed it a bunch. But still, this is a tremendous thread and great work by wtm. I mean absolutely great work. Except in March :-( Don't sell wtm short, awin. I, for one, think he does great work in March too.  |
|
|
|
Post by pdlglm on Jul 29, 2020 10:06:03 GMT -5
Honestly, and as sick as this is, I think this makes me like Deacon more.
He is the absolute perfect coach for this program. A coach who struggles in March takes over a program with 4 of the top scorers in SEC history, one that has had a bunch of regular season success but that is tied for 4th in most NCAA Tourney appearances without a final four. Just when things looked awful for both our program and Barnes, he steps in a rejuvenates both his career and our program.
Do we get a story book ending where he over comes his own tourney failures and our tourney history? Or do we both just keep doing what we do?
For me, I also go back to the day we hired Deacon and on that day if you had told me: he will have us back in the national conversation and back in the tourney regularly but we won't make a FF, I would have jumped on that with both feet and not thought twice.
|
|
|
|
Post by cherokee04 on Jul 29, 2020 10:34:24 GMT -5
Honestly, and as sick as this is, I think this makes me like Deacon more. He is the absolute perfect coach for this program. A coach who struggles in March takes over a program with 4 of the top scorers in SEC history, one that has had a bunch of regular season success but that is tied for 4th in most NCAA Tourney appearances without a final four. Just when things looked awful for both our program and Barnes, he steps in a rejuvenates both his career and our program. Do we get a story book ending where he over comes his own tourney failures and our tourney history? Or do we both just keep doing what we do? For me, I also go back to the day we hired Deacon and on that day if you had told me: he will have us back in the national conversation and back in the tourney regularly but we won't make a FF, I would have jumped on that with both feet and not thought twice. I think anyone would have jumped on that. I can't think of many people who would have turned up their noses at that, both because of where the program was when he was hired here, and because of our historical lack of tourney success which has been raised and conceded in this discussion. The issue remains that there appears to many of us to be a disconnect between what Barnes achieves in the regular season and his overall NCAAT track record, and I'd really like to see that change for both UT and Barnes. It would be a great way for him to finish up a career if he were to have a few tourneys to close out his career like the run he had at Texas 15 years + ago. I want to make a Final Four, like all of us do, but the lack of a Final Four from Barnes isn't really the main March complaint. It's more about the two years he has taken us to the tourney, we have had huge regular season success, including a month stay at #1 in one season and some great victories over power programs in both years, yet we have not made it past the Sweet 16, and were in fact knocked out in the round of 32 in a huge upset (that IMO would not have happened had Kyle A. not missed the game with a hip injury). So I don't think that the expectations for Rick are unusually high or that there is any failure to appreciate what he HAS done for this program. And if he never does much in March here, he at least has this program in MUCH better shape and we are now a more attractive program for a future hire as long as things don't go off the rails again before RB walks away, which I don't anticipate. It would just be nice to see UT make some hay in March. The failure to do so historically is the blemish on our mark that, IMO, misleads many people about the historical strength of the UT program. We're not a Kentucky/Duke/Kansas level program and almost certainly never will be for a sustained period frankly. But we're much better than people who use only NCAAT results as a barometer for measuring a program think. So getting some deep NCAAT runs is what this program needs to really validate our place for a lot of people. All JMO |
|
I will say that I don't think much of that surprised me except for one blatant stat...wins as an underdog. That's a rough looking number. Only 1? That's just bad. So punching above his weight, winning more than he should've, maybe hasn't happened as often as I wanted to gave him credit for. That and/or maybe the seedings are better reflective of the regular season expectations than the KP rankings, which is what I was using. As the resident Hoopsville NCAAT bracketologist, no one can answer that better than wtm anyway! 
