Post by pdlglm on Dec 2, 2024 11:48:03 GMT -5
Syracuse 4-2 KP #103
Tuesday night the Vols get back in action in the ACC/SEC Challenge, which replaces the annual SEC deal with the Big 12 – which sort of sucks since the Big12 is a better hoops conference than the ACC but whatever – it beats having another game with a Big South team. This is not your daddy’ Syracuse squad, outside of the KP top 100 – not picked to really do anything of note in the ACC (picked to finish 12th by Blue Ribbon) and haven’t even been to a NCAAT since 2021.
Don’t turn it over, can’t shoot, don’t shoot threes, bad at converting at the rim. Give up 41% of opponent shots at the rim, +300 in forcing mid range shots, get destroyed inside the arc but are currently the best in the nation at def OR%. Opponents get a third of their shots in transition. Here is their KP stuff.
The most interesting player on the roster is Donnie Freeman (6-9, 205lb). Freeman is the highest rated recruit to come to Syracuse since Carmelo Anthony and the McDonald’s All American is putting up 12pts and 9.2 boards early in his freshman campaign. He is 7th in the country in defensive rebounding at an absurd 34.6% DR% and he has only committed 6 fouls through the first 6 games which is really odd for a young big (ok, so 4 of those came in one game so he did get in foul trouble once but in the five other games he was called for only 2). 15-17 from the free throw line. Can’t shoot from three so sounds like the kind of kid who will get more than one year of college ball.
They are led by JJ Starling (6-4, 206lb Jr) and his 19.8pts 4.5 boards and 3 assists. 36.5 minutes a game. Primarily looks to score inside the arc, where he is over 55%. 31% 3PT% for his career so not much to see here. Not historically a big FTR guy. Doesn’t turn it over. Not particularly quick but good body control and the ability to finish through contact. Had 9pts on 13 shots against the Vols in Maui last year. Cuse scores 10 pts per 100 possessions more with him on the floor and give up 20 more without him on the floor – but then again he is hardly ever off the floor.
Chris Bell (6-7, 192lb Jr) 13.5pts and 3 boards. Led the team with 16pts against the Vols last year, shot 41% from three but has started this season 9-32. Doesn’t turn it over – not great on the glass. Offense has been better with him off the floor. Athletic, decent in transition, decent at cleaning up drives.
The fourth Orange-men, or wait, they don’t call them that anymore do they, the fourth Orange?
, the fourth member of this team from Syracuse University that is scoring in double digits is a transfer from Colorado by way of TCU Eddie Lampkin (6-11, 265lb Sr). Lampkin has 10.5pts, 7.3 boards and 3 assists a game on the year and Blue Ribbon said he was 300lbs, so there is that. Over 55% inside the arc, very good on the glass on both ends of the floor – doesn’t shoot threes, well, he shot one… and made it, this year against Colgate. His only one in his 5 years of college ball. Nimble in the post, likes to go to a spin move when he feels contact, not really a leaper, but quick-ish for a big. Decent passer out of the post but like a lot of big guys, will turn it over. Not a good free throw shooter.
Syracuse has their own Hofstra transfer in Jaquan Carlos (6-0, 180lb Sr) a poor shooting (never better than 48% eFG% for his career) point guard who averaged 6.3 assists to go along with 10pts a game in the Colonial Athletic. Struggling so far on a bigger stage, 7-30 from the floor and only 3 assists a game. Shooting 50% from the line. Was on the All Defense team two years in a row at Hofstra. Looks like a nice little mid major point but he turns it over a bunch for a lead guard.
Only other player getting 20 minutes a game is Delaware transfer Jyare Davis (6-7, 220lb Sr) who was a 17pt a game guy last season in the Colonial Athletic. Inside only guy, draws fouls, great rebounding numbers, but only getting 5.7 shots per game at Syracuse after over 13 a game each of the past two years.
I feel like we beat a better version of this team last year on a neutral floor, as so far this version doesn’t play defense. Scoring 1.08 pts per and giving up 1.049 a possession, the Orange’s losses actually look better than their wins. They lost by 4 to a decent Texas team and then by 5 to Texas Tech – both on neutral courts. Their four wins have been against teams ranked #186 or worse on the KP – one of those went to OT, and two of the other three were by a total of 6pts. They are worse than a Cuonzo Martin team at generating turnovers and they have been getting scorched inside the arc.
But they do rebound well, so they could make the most of shooting variance if it is a shooting variance kind of night. Plus they don’t turn it over and carry a +3 FGA margin over their opponents early on. Slightly above average in 2PT%. I mean, there is some stuff here,
But then I look at the KP WP% and his computer thinks this is a 21pt Vols win and a 97% win probability because we are apparently a machine these days. If that holds it will be the first time anyone has blown this team out this year – but you know – I sort of think it does hold. This Syracuse team is…. Fine. I mean, they do have a couple athletes and a couple of guys who can score and they aren’t small or unathletic but the Vols are scoring 1.242 (10th in the country) and giving up 0.832 (4th) on the season and I don’t think ‘fine’ beats that on the road. Still, the name Syracuse makes this interesting, at least to somebody my age.
Our depleted rotation of bigs will be challenged as they do have size and ability down low. It would be nice if we didn’t turn it over since they are not particularly good at generating them, Keep shooting well – I feel like we have shot the ball better away from home but maybe that is wrong I am too lazy to check that one. So, lets see the ball go in the basket.
Vols win big.
GBO
Tuesday night the Vols get back in action in the ACC/SEC Challenge, which replaces the annual SEC deal with the Big 12 – which sort of sucks since the Big12 is a better hoops conference than the ACC but whatever – it beats having another game with a Big South team. This is not your daddy’ Syracuse squad, outside of the KP top 100 – not picked to really do anything of note in the ACC (picked to finish 12th by Blue Ribbon) and haven’t even been to a NCAAT since 2021.
Don’t turn it over, can’t shoot, don’t shoot threes, bad at converting at the rim. Give up 41% of opponent shots at the rim, +300 in forcing mid range shots, get destroyed inside the arc but are currently the best in the nation at def OR%. Opponents get a third of their shots in transition. Here is their KP stuff.
The most interesting player on the roster is Donnie Freeman (6-9, 205lb). Freeman is the highest rated recruit to come to Syracuse since Carmelo Anthony and the McDonald’s All American is putting up 12pts and 9.2 boards early in his freshman campaign. He is 7th in the country in defensive rebounding at an absurd 34.6% DR% and he has only committed 6 fouls through the first 6 games which is really odd for a young big (ok, so 4 of those came in one game so he did get in foul trouble once but in the five other games he was called for only 2). 15-17 from the free throw line. Can’t shoot from three so sounds like the kind of kid who will get more than one year of college ball.
They are led by JJ Starling (6-4, 206lb Jr) and his 19.8pts 4.5 boards and 3 assists. 36.5 minutes a game. Primarily looks to score inside the arc, where he is over 55%. 31% 3PT% for his career so not much to see here. Not historically a big FTR guy. Doesn’t turn it over. Not particularly quick but good body control and the ability to finish through contact. Had 9pts on 13 shots against the Vols in Maui last year. Cuse scores 10 pts per 100 possessions more with him on the floor and give up 20 more without him on the floor – but then again he is hardly ever off the floor.
Chris Bell (6-7, 192lb Jr) 13.5pts and 3 boards. Led the team with 16pts against the Vols last year, shot 41% from three but has started this season 9-32. Doesn’t turn it over – not great on the glass. Offense has been better with him off the floor. Athletic, decent in transition, decent at cleaning up drives.
The fourth Orange-men, or wait, they don’t call them that anymore do they, the fourth Orange?
, the fourth member of this team from Syracuse University that is scoring in double digits is a transfer from Colorado by way of TCU Eddie Lampkin (6-11, 265lb Sr). Lampkin has 10.5pts, 7.3 boards and 3 assists a game on the year and Blue Ribbon said he was 300lbs, so there is that. Over 55% inside the arc, very good on the glass on both ends of the floor – doesn’t shoot threes, well, he shot one… and made it, this year against Colgate. His only one in his 5 years of college ball. Nimble in the post, likes to go to a spin move when he feels contact, not really a leaper, but quick-ish for a big. Decent passer out of the post but like a lot of big guys, will turn it over. Not a good free throw shooter.Syracuse has their own Hofstra transfer in Jaquan Carlos (6-0, 180lb Sr) a poor shooting (never better than 48% eFG% for his career) point guard who averaged 6.3 assists to go along with 10pts a game in the Colonial Athletic. Struggling so far on a bigger stage, 7-30 from the floor and only 3 assists a game. Shooting 50% from the line. Was on the All Defense team two years in a row at Hofstra. Looks like a nice little mid major point but he turns it over a bunch for a lead guard.
Only other player getting 20 minutes a game is Delaware transfer Jyare Davis (6-7, 220lb Sr) who was a 17pt a game guy last season in the Colonial Athletic. Inside only guy, draws fouls, great rebounding numbers, but only getting 5.7 shots per game at Syracuse after over 13 a game each of the past two years.
I feel like we beat a better version of this team last year on a neutral floor, as so far this version doesn’t play defense. Scoring 1.08 pts per and giving up 1.049 a possession, the Orange’s losses actually look better than their wins. They lost by 4 to a decent Texas team and then by 5 to Texas Tech – both on neutral courts. Their four wins have been against teams ranked #186 or worse on the KP – one of those went to OT, and two of the other three were by a total of 6pts. They are worse than a Cuonzo Martin team at generating turnovers and they have been getting scorched inside the arc.
But they do rebound well, so they could make the most of shooting variance if it is a shooting variance kind of night. Plus they don’t turn it over and carry a +3 FGA margin over their opponents early on. Slightly above average in 2PT%. I mean, there is some stuff here,
But then I look at the KP WP% and his computer thinks this is a 21pt Vols win and a 97% win probability because we are apparently a machine these days. If that holds it will be the first time anyone has blown this team out this year – but you know – I sort of think it does hold. This Syracuse team is…. Fine. I mean, they do have a couple athletes and a couple of guys who can score and they aren’t small or unathletic but the Vols are scoring 1.242 (10th in the country) and giving up 0.832 (4th) on the season and I don’t think ‘fine’ beats that on the road. Still, the name Syracuse makes this interesting, at least to somebody my age.
Our depleted rotation of bigs will be challenged as they do have size and ability down low. It would be nice if we didn’t turn it over since they are not particularly good at generating them, Keep shooting well – I feel like we have shot the ball better away from home but maybe that is wrong I am too lazy to check that one. So, lets see the ball go in the basket.
Vols win big.
GBO
