Morning Vol Artilce round up

it was interesting to hear that coming from the kid as well.

So I just read up on this kid a little as I didn’t know much about him. 

This guy has “Barnes recruit” written all over him.  Perusing through his twitter profile, he’s clearly a very humble and mature kid.  In one of his latest tweets he talked about how much respect he has for coaches who have to try and recruit during these restrictions.  Said it’s tough on him not knowing if he can take visits, but must be worse for coaches as “only so many Zooms you can do.”   He just seems to have a bit of a different perspective than lots of high major kids, but trends the same as most of this staff’s recent players.   

Apparently he was sickly as a kid and was a late bloomer that has an insane work ethic and loves to play defense.  3 years ago, I’d guess we’d be all over this guy and the only reason we’ve not yet put on a full court press is due to the crazy recruiting waters we’re fishing in.  But he’s still a Top-50ish recruit and seems to check all the Barnes boxes.   

Here’s a article discussing a little bit about him:
www.pe.com/etiwanda-basketballs-jahmai-mashack-thrives-despite-heartbreak-setbacks

absolute love to have this kid. Kind of guy who, if he can hack the work you have to put in, would be a tremendous player by his junior year.

Looks like we're going pretty hard after Mashack and impressing him.

www.rockytopinsider.com/2020/07/29/vols-definitely-near-the-top-for-elite-4-star-guard/

Cherokee, it’s a great question and probably worth a separate thread.  But in a nutshell, think of it as just a pure math problem and leave players out of it for now.  I lied.   Let’s look at Vescovi last year.  He was a 36% 3 point shooter, so on average, every time he attempted a 3 point shot, that equated to 1.08 points (36% x 3 points).   He shot 2‘s at a 39.1% clip, thus .782 points per attempt.   So we’d want him taking more 3s than 2s in general.   The kicker on the 2 point % though is that number is a mix of his layups, dunks (can Vescovi dunk?!) and jump shots.  The data isn’t readily available, but we know most everyone is better at layups and dunks than jump shots so 3’s are even MORE valuable when put into that context.     Last year, Vescovi made 51.3% of his shots at the rim, which would be 1.026 points per attempt.   What’s left are free throws and “jump shots.”    An 82% free throw shooter, he earned .82 points per shot attempt at the line, and then the dreaded jump shot he only shot at a 23.3% rate, which equals .47 points per attempt.   

Santi’s numbers track similarly across most players.   Getting to the line is typically best, because while his .82 points per attempt is less valuable than a 3 at a glance, if we’re in the double bonus or he makes the first one, you get to double that shot attempt so a 1.6 points per trip is insanely efficient (and far and away the best point value in the game for most players).   Next best is shooting 3s for him, 1.08 pts per attempt.   Then shots at the rim 1.03, than far and away the worst is 2 point jump shots...only .47 points per attempt.  You can see that not only is it the worst expected point value, but it’s orders of magnitude worse.  

So that’s why the analytics say the mid range 2 is the worst shot in the game and why it’s often mentioned as such.   It’s just the least valuable shot.   But that’s obviously a gross oversimplification as not all 2 point shots, even jumpers, are created equal.   If it’s uncontested, that % likely goes up (to your point, think a big man drifting out that can hit that shot).  Or for a great midrange shooter, it can be ok.  Even Bowden, who we often whined about scheming to get a mid range shot, was honestly a great 2 point jump shooter in his own right (he shot 47% from 2 last year, and oddly was at that same clip whether at the rim or shooting mid range).   So his true jump shot value last year was 47%x2 or .94 points per attempt.  Not nearly as good as Santi or JJJ or Pons shooting a 3, not in the same planet as Fulky shooting near the rim, but better than most guys at jump shooting.  

So that’s the logic behind it.  Mid-range isn’t really defined in the context of how most refer to it with analytics, and we could analyze different ranges for different players, but in general the farther from the rim, the lower the shot % goes down, so the worse the value of that shot is.  At least right up until you cross the 3 point line when the value jumps a ton because even with the much lower %, that 1 added point more than makes up for the extra misses (for a decent shooter).   I think Bowden never missed in practice, and Barnes used to run stuff for him just to try to ignite that ‘shooter’ in him, get the ball to go through the net kind of thing.  Confidence, like you said.  Plus he was a good enough shooter anyway that there wasn’t a ton of value drop off, some yes, but apparently acceptable.   Also with a big man, he’s much more likely to be open when shooting a midrange shot, so if that increases his shot % enough, then it may make it a more valuable shot, but most likely just a less bad shot.   Big coming out too can often draw the other team’s best rebounder out, so there’s lots of hidden value added with a big that can make that shot consistently that might not correlate to a guard.     Not lost in all this is while I’m as numbers driven and nerdy as anyone, you can’t just play the game on paper.  Launching 3s, getting dunks, and shooting free throws would be the optimal way to score, but opposing team defense will probably try to force you into a jump shot anyway.    Scheming and quite often watching plays obviously designed with the end result of having one of our players shoot a mid range jumper is what drove me and I think pdl and some others crazy at times.   The thought that if we do everything right on this play, the desired outcome is we’ll have given ourselves one of the least valuable shots...that was the hang up.   Usually, if you’re a guard and can shoot good mid-range, taking a 3 is the better shot. Bowden was so bad at 3’s last year, that actually wasn’t the case (.86 point value for 3 point attempt vs. .94 for a jump shot).  

It sort of aligns with Barnes’ defensive philosophy.   Collapse the paint and take away any of those high % near-rim 2 point shots, and force teams into jump shots (or 3s, which is the part that doesn’t really align). There seems to be no rhyme or reason to Barnes’ historical 3 point D (sometimes good, sometimes bad), but his teams are always, always, always good at 2 point d, and I’m sure this is why.   Kim English actually tweeted last week or so about the strategy of trying to lure opponents with bad 3 point shooters into taking open 3s, but that’s hard to keep track of for college students I think.   But that would be THE optimal d strategy....defend without fouling, make the opponent take 3’s only with their bad shooters, and then force them into mid range jump shots.   Spurs won a ton of championships with that strategy.    

Sorry for the long rant.   Might not be exactly what you were asking, but this is sort of the history behind the disappearance of the mid range game.